My research spans international economics and an emerging line of work in AI governance. Across these projects, I study how policy choices shape cross-border markets, development, and technological risk. My economics work uses empirical tools to examine exchange rates, trade invoicing, and global value chains; my AI governance work focuses on incident monitoring, export control policies, and AI's economic impact.
AI Governance
I approach AI governance as a problem of measurement, institutional design, and political economy: how to make AI risks observable, how to build oversight capacity, and how to evaluate the economic consequences of AI deployment.
* indicates equal first authorship.
AI Incident Monitoring through a Public Health Lens ( arxiv, pdf )
Sophia Abraham*, Taiye Chen*, Cyril Chhun, Giovanna Jaramillo-Gutierrez, Simon Mylius, Sayash Raaj, Peter Slattery, Sean McGregor
On arXiv, 2026.
This paper develops a public-health approach to AI incident monitoring, treating incidents not as isolated failures but as signals in a broader risk surveillance system. It argues that incident databases become more useful when paired with information on system prevalence, reporting incentives, and expert judgment. Using autonomous-vehicle and deepfake case studies, the paper shows how governance institutions can move from anecdotal incident tracking toward more decision-relevant oversight.
International Economics
My international economics work studies how exchange rates, currency invoicing, and trade integration shape global value chain participation and structural change, especially for economies navigating geoeconomic fragmentation.
U.S. Dollar Invoicing and GVC Participation: A Two-Way Interaction ( pdf )
Taiye Chen
Job market paper, 2026.
This paper examines the two-way relationship between dollar-invoiced trade and bilateral global value chain flows using a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) framework. The results suggest that greater reliance on dollar invoicing can constrain deeper GVC integration, while greater GVC participation can reduce dollar dependence. The findings highlight how dominant-currency trade shapes the benefits and risks of integration, especially when exchange-rate volatility is high.
The Impact of Trade Invoicing Decisions on Global Value Chain Participation: An Empirical Analysis
Taiye Chen
Working paper, 2026.
Using data from 96 countries over 1990-2020, this paper studies how exchange-rate movements interact with dominant currency invoicing to shape global value chain participation across production stages. The analysis shows that dominant-currency trade is especially sensitive to exchange-rate movements: dollar appreciation dampens GVC participation, particularly backward participation, while invoicing structure changes the magnitude of these effects.
Are Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation and Trade Integration Complements? An Evaluation on Employment Reallocation
Taiye Chen
Working paper, 2026.
This project evaluates whether real exchange rate undervaluation and trade integration jointly support labor reallocation toward tradable sectors. Using local projections, it studies how undervaluation affects employment shifts as economies integrate into global trade. The project asks when exchange-rate policy and openness act as complements in structural transformation.
