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This paper examines the two-way relationship between dollar-invoiced trade and bilateral global value chain flows using a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) framework. The results suggest that greater reliance on dollar invoicing can constrain deeper GVC integration, while greater GVC participation can reduce dollar dependence. The findings highlight how dominant-currency trade shapes the benefits and risks of integration, especially when exchange-rate volatility is high.

Using data from 96 countries over 1990-2020, this paper studies how exchange-rate movements interact with dominant currency invoicing to shape global value chain participation across production stages. The analysis shows that dominant-currency trade is especially sensitive to exchange-rate movements: dollar appreciation dampens GVC participation, particularly backward participation, while invoicing structure changes the magnitude of these effects.

This project evaluates whether real exchange rate undervaluation and trade integration jointly support labor reallocation toward tradable sectors. Using local projections, it studies how undervaluation affects employment shifts as economies integrate into global trade. The project asks when exchange-rate policy and openness act as complements in structural transformation.

This paper develops a public-health approach to AI incident monitoring, treating incidents not as isolated failures but as signals in a broader risk surveillance system. It argues that incident databases become more useful when paired with information on system prevalence, reporting incentives, and expert judgment. Using autonomous-vehicle and deepfake case studies, the paper shows how governance institutions can move from anecdotal incident tracking toward more decision-relevant oversight.